The Box Office Battleground
Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss showed Batman V Superman who was in charge, taking the number 1 spot in a tight race. We predicted McCarthy’s film, as well as Batman V Superman, would be in a neck in neck finish however, we wagered Batman V Superman had a slight advantage. The opposite turned out to be the case and The Boss became the highest grossing flick of the weekend with a $23,586,645 weekend with Batman V Superman losing by the hair on Superman’s chin at $23,363,079. We were right on the money with these predictions, estimating both films would do about $22-25 million. Filling out the third spot in the top five of the weekend was Zootopia. Not only did we get the spot right but we were scary close with our prediction at $14-15 million, Zootopia brought in 14.3 million beating Hardcore Henry and my Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. Speaking of those two films, they both find a way in the top 5, but Hardcore Henry greatly under performed our calculations. We wagered Hardcore Henry could bring anywhere from $7-10 million, but it fell short of even the more skeptical analysts estimates at 5.1 million dollars. This gave the advantage to My Big Fat Greek Wedding to take the 4th position on the top 5 chart at $6.4 million.
The new contestants of the weekend are Disney’s The Jungle Book, Barbershop: The Next Cut, Criminal, and Green Room. First, let’s take a look at Jon Favreau’s The Jungle Book. Hoping to repeat the success of Disney’s previous retellings of classic stories like Oz The Great and Powerful, Cinderella, and Maleficent, Disney is setting their sites high. Hoping to smash a new April record at the box office. The Jungle Book is aiming for an opening weekend around the $70 million mark. Thursday previews were $4.1 million, which is on par with Maleficent’s Thursday preview. Maleficent went on accumulate $69.4 in its opening weekend. As for Oz and Cinderella, they had smaller Thursday previews but still went on to hit the mark at $67.8 million for Cinderella and $79.1 million for Oz. Looking at these numbers it looks like The Jungle Book is going to be in the same ballpark as these films, if not higher. Expect The Jungle Book to take the number 1 spot at about $68-75 million. It is possible for numbers even higher since the reviews have been very glowing.
Barbershop: The Next Cut is looking to be the runner-up in the number 2 spot this weekend. Numbers are tricky to peg down for these “x” years late comedy sequels. They’ve been a newer trend with varying degrees of success from Anchorman 2 to Zoolander 2. Barbershop is tracking to open larger than it’s predecessor did at $24.2 million in 2004. The films have developed a cult following and the 93% (as of the time I was writing this) Tomatometer for it is very promising in promoting ticket sales for the sequel. Also contributing to a solid debut weekend for Barbershop is the star power. Starring actors Ice Cube, who is arguably at the height of his acting career, Cedric The Entertainer, Regina Hall, and Anthony Anderson all round out a more than competent comedic cast. Thursday previews brought in $730,000 which is on par with director Malcolm D. Lee’s prior film The Best Man Holiday, which opened to the tune of $30.1 million. Looking at these numbers expect Barbershop: The Next Cut to bring in about $30-35 million in the hopes the positive reviews can elevate the film.
Ryan Reynold’s saw some box office glory with this year’s Deadpool, however, Criminal is not looking to be a repeat success. A Tomatometer score of 26% (as of the time I was writing this) does not bode too well for the film. Criminal brought in a weak $235,000 in previews, which has analysts comparing it to Sean Penn’s The Gunman which had similar Thursday numbers, and went on to bring a cumulative $5 million opening weekend. They say a raising tide raises all ships, and I believe this weekend will see the box office rise, and that very well could aid Criminal beating The Gunman’s disappointing $5 million weekend. Something between $5-7 million would be where I would place this film.
Finally, we have the film that I am personally most excited for this weekend, and that is Green Room. Jeremy Saulnier’s debut film Blue Ruin was a fantastic character piece about revenge, and it’s far reaching and long lasting effects. The film was critically lauded and brought in $258,384 in a limited run in 7 theaters. Green Room is continuing Saulnier’s glowing critical reception with a 90% certified fresh on rotten tomatoes. The film is opening in 3 theaters this weekend, so it will be extremely interesting to see and analyze it’s per theater average before it releases wider.
Wrapping up the box office battleground it’s safe to say The Boss, Batman V Superman, and Zootopia will continue to perform strongly. Expect about 50% drop in sales for both The Boss and Batman V Superman. That would place The Boss around $11.8 million for its second weekend and Batman V Superman at $11.6 million. Depending on how much Zootopia drops this weekend it could even edge out either The Boss or Batman V Superman for a place in the top 5. Zootopia has leveled out at around a 20-25% drop per weekend, dropping 25% this weekend would put it at $11.4 million for the weekend in a tight 3-way race for dominance against The Boss and Batman V Superman.
- The Jungle Book – $68-75 million
- Barbershop: The Next Cut – 30-35 million
- The Boss – $11-12 million
- Batman V Superman – $11-12 million
- Zootopia – $10-11 million
Check back next week to see how accurate or inaccurate we were! Be sure to leave your own predictions in the comment section below.
