This year’s The Game Awards are still more than three months away, scheduled for December 11. But if you thought the discourse around who’ll win Game of the Year between Expedition 33, Silksong, or Death Stranding 2 was already unbearable, congratulations. It seems even Wall Street Bros has joined the hype cycle for The Game Awards GOTY 2025.
Prediction market platform Kalshi now lets you buy and sell contracts on which game will win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2025. Yes, really. This means gamers aren’t just arguing on Reddit, X, or ResetEra anymore — they’re literally wagering money on Geoff Keighley’s taste.
It works like this: if you think a game will win The Game Awards GOTY 2025, you buy ‘Yes’ shares. For example, it’s 83¢ for Expedition 33. If it does win on December 11, then you receive $1 per share. If not, you lose. The odds shift constantly, probably depending on hype, reviews, and how many streamers are still playing the game. At the time of writing, the list includes 16 entries, though four of them have not yet been released:
- Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
- Hollow Knight: Silksong
- Ghost of Yotei
- Death Stranding 2: On The Beach
- Donkey Kong Bananza
- Metroid Prime 4: Beyond
- Grand Theft Auto VI
- Monster Hunter Wilds
- Split Fiction
- Elden Ring Nightreign
- Blue Prince
- The Outer Worlds 2
- Mafia: The Old Country
- Kingdom Come: Deliverance II
- Borderlands 4
- Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
So far, Expedition 33 seems to be the runaway favorite, trading at 82% odds, ballooning in confidence after its rave reviews. Silksong trails way behind at 6% despite a brief spike, which isn’t that surprising considering it only released a few days ago. Meanwhile, Death Stranding 2 and Nintendo’s latest Donkey Kong Bananza limps in at 4%. Oddly enough, Ghost of Yotei is already pulling 5% despite not even being out yet.
“Clair Obscur is the present frontrunner but if [Bananza] can outscore it by 2-3 points, I think it’ll ultimately be crowned GotY. If it scores 95-96, it’ll have stronger chance at winning GotY,” analyzed Trav in the comments. “Astro Bot winning last year may negatively impact judges wanting to award another platformer with GotY so soon after.“
“Real talk, I’m trying to dump my bags at 9 cents. It should at least go to 15 cents,” wrote Detourne as they went for Yotei. “E33 has limited upside, DS2 is out and it ain’t it, Bananza is no BotW, and Yotei has Sony Money behind it which critics eat up […] It won’t win but has more contender potential than the rest.”
Is it ridiculous? Absolutely, considering this is peak gamer irony. Gamers will complain endlessly about predatory FOMO monetization and how gacha pulls and loot boxes are scams to fill up publishers’ pockets. Then the next thing you know, they’ll throw money at a glorified marketing gimmick tied to an award show.
The funniest part is that the market rules explicitly state that The Game Awards ‘official announcement’ is the sole arbiter. Meaning their money, which won’t go towards the games or even the show in the first place, rides entirely on Geoff and the jury’s pick. Not Metacritic, not SteamDB player counts, not Twitch streams, not even sales numbers. Whatever The Game Awards feels like promoting on December 11.
