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Like the comet in Deep Impact, Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6) is coming, and it’s going to make tsunami-sized waves. The latest entry in the infamous video game series is unlikely to kill millions of people as the comet did in the 1998 disaster movie, but there will be casualties. Specifically, any game that gets in GTA 6‘s way will likely be steamrolled. As such, it’s hardly surprising that publishers are keen to avoid the media behemoth. But I’d argue that it’s a risky ploy, in effect giving all the power to the GTA 6 publisher, Take-Two Interactive.
Max Wanted Level
It’s hard to overstate just how huge GTA 6 is going to be. In this day and age, there aren’t many games that you can confidently state will sell gangbusters ahead of release, but this is one of them. Just don’t take my word for it, though. Analysts predict GTA 6 will generate a cool $1 billion in pre-orders alone. In the 12 months following release, it’s predicted to rake in $3.2 billion. These are, quite simply, astonishing figures. But they’re not surprising. Consider that the Grand Theft Auto series has reportedly brought in an eyewatering $8.9 billion since Grand Theft Auto 5 was released in 2013. Much of that is attributable to Take-Two’s multiplayer cash cow, GTA Online.
So, with such staggering numbers floating around, it’s not difficult to imagine just how massive GTA 6 is going to be. Keep in mind public sentiment, too. We’ve only had a single, solitary trailer for GTA 6, and then released way back in December 2023. Over a year ago. The trailer has amassed hundreds of millions of views and only left us fans begging for more.
But, other than knowing that Take-Two is targeting a 2025 holiday release date, the publisher is keeping its cards very close to its chest. Every prediction we’ve made about release dates has been wrong. Every time we’ve eagerly anticipated a new trailer has resulted in disappointment. Developer Rockstar Games and publisher Take-Two have all the cards, and they know it.
Evasive Action
It’s no secret that it’s a bad idea to get caught in the path of a video game juggernaut. It can spell disaster for a video game release, particularly for games of a similar scale and genre. For example, developer RGG recently moved the release date of Like A Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii forward to avoid a clash with Monster Hunter Wilds. In 2024, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 was such a big deal that many publishers would have wanted to avoid its release window.
All of these games pale in comparison to GTA 6, though. Tens of millions of gamers will no doubt pick up GTA 6 at launch and likely remain playing it for weeks. Even before it releases, some players will be saving their hard-earned money for the media sensation, so other titles released just prior to GTA 6 could suffer.
In short, therefore, reports that publishers are apparently holding fire from announcing firm release dates, hoping to avoid GTA 6 seem to make perfect sense. At first glance, it appears to be a sensible strategy. But it’s not without significant risk.
Damned If You Do and Damned If You Don’t
Video game publishers looking to release a game in the tail end of 2025 have a real dilemma. The choice is between waiting to see when Take-Two announces GTA 6‘s release date and then avoid it like the plague, and announcing a release date and risk being in GTA 6‘s path. It’s a Mexican standoff, of sorts. Except one of the parties has an automatic rifle and the others have spud guns.
Of course, if a publisher announces a release date for its game and then finds out that GTA 6 is releasing nearby, it can always delay or move the launch forward. But that isn’t a risk-free option, either. For higher-budget games, particularly in the AAA space, the marketing machine is a colossal and very costly affair. Once it’s set in motion, it’s very expensive to make last-minute delays. Worse, bringing a release date forward could result in a product going to market that simply isn’t ready.
So, in that context, waiting for Take-Two to make the first move seems like the sensible option, right? Perhaps, but it’s also not without significant risk. Secure in the knowledge that GTA 6 will sell like PRIME Energy drinks at a kids’ convention, Take-Two may play coy with the release date. This could spell disaster for other publishers that commit to the waiting game. What if GTA 6 is delayed into 2026, for example, as seems to me to be a distinct possibility? Publishers with completed games may be forced to rush them out late 2025 with sub-par marketing or else sit on them until GTA 6 has abated.
An Unenviable Dilemma
In short, video game publishers have a real dilemma when it comes to announcing release dates for their AAA games. Naturally, they want to avoid GTA 6 at all costs. The latest in the long-running series will undoubtedly commandeer players’ time and wallets on an unprecedented scale. But waiting for GTA publisher Take-Two Interactive to announce a release date for GTA 6 isn’t without risks.
Personally, I don’t envy the producers in this situation. It’s difficult enough to schedule video game development and release without having to keep one eye on a medium-transcending behemoth.
And as for us players, all we can do is wait (im)patiently for the next scrap of GTA 6 information to discuss, dissect, and obsess over. See you then!
