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2023 was an interesting year for the worldwide box office. The highest-grossing movie of the year was Barbie, an auteur-driven movie that wasn’t part of a bankable franchise. It wasn’t the first Barbie movie, but it’s far and away the highest-grossing. An animated video game movie made the second biggest box office of the year, with The Super Mario Bros. Movie being one of only two movies to break through the $1 billion mark. Interestingly, Oppenheimer was the third highest-grossing film. Also auteur-driven, it’s the third highest-grossing Christopher Nolan movie, behind The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight.
So, it’s not a safe bet that a franchise movie will take the top spot this year. In 2024, the highest-grossing movies as of writing are Dune: Part Two, which is at the end of its run, and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. Both movies have yet to break the $1 billion barrier, and it doesn’t seem like they will. There are only a few movies that might be able to pass that barrier this year. Therefore, with 2024 nearly halfway over, let’s look forward (and backward) to see what the highest-grossing movie of this year might be, and see if Deadpool & Wolverine will bring Marvel back into that top spot.
Will Deadpool & Wolverine Be the Highest-Grossing Movie of 2024?
Some movies are releasing in 2024 that could make more money than Dune: Part Two, but it would be surprising if they were the highest-grossing for various reasons. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga could do very well, but Fury Road only made around $350 million during its run. Gladiator 2 could also do well, but director Ridley Scott’s highest-grossing movie, The Martian, only made $630 million. Twisters could also creep high because the original film made close to $500 million in 1996, and the scale and spectacle might get people into theaters.
Two upcoming movies might end up sweeping the rest of the competition. Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine, and Illumination’s Despicable Me 4 are the films that will most likely pass that $1 billion barrier. The biggest hurdle Deadpool & Wolverine will need to jump is that the highest-grossing X-Men movie is also the highest-grossing Deadpool movie, with Deadpool 2’s $785 million total worldwide gross. Of course, Deadpool & Wolverine will also be R-rated, but it will also be the first movie in the Fox X-Men series to take place in the MCU.
If Deadpool & Wolverine does reach $1 billion, it will be the first MCU movie to do so since Spider-Man: No Way Home in 2021. Of course, the MCU does have 10 movies on the list of highest-grossing movies so we shouldn’t be counting it out. Despicable Me 4 on the other hand is the sixth entry in that series, with the last four entries all earning over $900 million. There would need to be a solid disinterest in the franchise either based on quality or oversaturation for Despicable Me 4 not to make at least $900 million.
Is 2024 the Year of Disney?
Sure, Deadpool & Wolverine is going to do well, but we can’t discount the rest of Disney’s line-up this year. Inside Out 2 is Disney Pixar’s much anticipated release this year and is the first numbered Pixar sequel since 2019’s Toy Story 4. Pixar sequels do extremely well at the box office, with Toy Story 4, Incredibles 2, and Finding Dory all earning over $1 billion. The original Inside Out also grossed around $850 million, so if the quality is there, it could reach and even exceed that $1 billion mark.
There’s also Mufasa: The Lion King in December, which is the prequel to the 2019 The Lion King, and that made $1.6 billion. Being a prequel might let it down, but it grossing over $1 billion is still very likely. It could easily end up as the highest-grossing movie of 2024. Moana 2 is also coming out in November 2024. While the original made only $687 million, it could get a Frozen II-like bump and climb higher. All in all, it’s shaping up to be a very good year for Disney if all of these line up with past performances.
There are also a few wild cards that have a good chance of performing well at the box office but could easily do worse too. For example, Joker made over $1 billion, but this year’s Joker: Folie à Deux might not take in the same audience because it’s a musical. Speaking of musicals, Wicked could easily follow in the footsteps of the Broadway musical on which it is based and come out on top. Ariana Grande fans might not even make it a fair fight.
Could an Unannounced Movie Be the Highest-Grossing Movie of 2024?
It’s virtually impossible that an unannounced movie ends up being the highest-grossing movie of the year. Although, it’s perfectly possible that it’s one that hasn’t been mentioned here. Something like Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Megalopolis, or Borderlands could shock everyone and end up taking home the most money. There’s even Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga which might end up capitalizing on the success of Yellowstone and bringing television audiences out to the theaters in droves. 2024 doesn’t really have a clear-cut winner, much like you might not have guessed Barbie would rule 2023.
Ultimately, based on prior performance and franchise potential, it seems likely that Deadpool & Wolverine will end up as the highest-grossing movie of 2024. If you just analyze prior performance, Mufasa: The Lion King would take the top spot instead. If both of those movies fail to crack the $1 billion mark, then it’s open for either Inside Out 2 or more likely Despicable Me 4. No matter how it ends up, there’s some solid competition releasing in the latter half of the year.
