A report by researchers at UC Berkeley and UCLA projects 2.2 million more Californians under 65 will lose health insurance by 2030. The study projects California’s uninsured population will reach 4.6 million. The uninsured rate would climb to nearly 14.7%.
Researchers examined state and federal changes affecting Medi-Cal and Covered California. They said the changes would reverse gains made under the Affordable Care Act.
Among the changes is a Medi-Cal enrollment freeze for undocumented adults 19 and older. Gov. Gavin Newsom included the measure in the 2025-26 Budget Act.
The federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act ends full-scope Medicaid coverage for refugees, asylees and other humanitarian immigrants. Some provisions will take effect through July 2027.
Researchers said low-income, Latine and undocumented Californians would face the steepest losses. They based their projections on the California Simulation of Insurance Markets, a model developed in 2012.
California Residents React to Projected Healthcare Crisis
The report prompted a broad debate among California residents over healthcare policy and the state’s political leadership.
One user wrote, “California is bigger than most countries. Most countries have universal healthcare. We could, as well, if we had politicians that fought for us.”
Another response stated, “If only the Dems had a veto proof majority in the state legislature, senate, governors mansion and courts… oh wait… they do. This could be solved in a half an hour.”
One resident argued, “Because the dems that are getting voted in are in bed with health insurance companies (ie Newsom, soon to be Becerra). We keep putting the wrong people in power and the cycle continues, it is hopeless.”
A separate user added, “And our next governor won’t be backing universal healthcare so… sucks for us.”
Not everyone agreed with the premise of the concerns. One person wrote, “This report feels completely misleading? It looks like the only people impacted by this are non citizens? Why is that a problem. Why would we pay for non citizens?”
Another response stated, “Tax payers in the US should not pay for illegal immigrants health care.”
Several of the policy changes examined in the study are scheduled to be implemented through July 2027, leaving uncertainty over how sharply California’s uninsured rate could rise and which communities would experience the largest losses in coverage.
