It appears even wildfires and other natural disasters are not exempt from the good ol’ human impulse of gambling, as prediction markets are now ramping up the betting contracts on wildfires in wildfire-prone areas like Oregon. Hence, Oregon lawmakers are turning up the heat on these prediction markets for fear that allowing people to bet on wildfires could create a disturbing financial incentive to make already dangerous fires worse.
A coalition of senators from Oregon and other states such as California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire has asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to block prediction-market platforms from offering contracts tied to destructive wildfires. The lawmakers argue that betting on the duration, size, or destruction caused by a fire could turn a public disaster into a financial opportunity and potentially encourage arson.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the senators wrote in a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig. They also cited concerns from state and local fire officials that “individuals could be tempted to commit arson” to make their bets pay off.
The senators want the CFTC to determine whether wildfire-related event contracts serve the public interest and whether additional restrictions should apply to both domestic and offshore platforms. They have asked the agency to respond to their questions by Aug. 14.
The push comes after reports that Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in wagers connected to the Palisades and Eaton fires in Southern California in January 2025. Those fires killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures. A newly launched prediction platform has also promoted simulated trading on wildfires with the slogan, “You can’t predict fire, but you can trade on it.”
People online are calling the trend dystopian
The controversy has also sparked a fiery reaction online, with some social media users arguing that the very existence of such bets creates a dangerous incentive even without evidence that anyone has actually started a wildfire to collect a prediction-market payout. “It’s so dystopian. I feel like there’s a black mirror episode about this,” one commenter wrote.
Another commenter argued, “Who knew giving people the ability to gamble on things they themselves can influence would be a bad idea.” A third commenter summed up the concern more bluntly: “Some people will stop at absolutely NOTHING to win a wager.” Certain Reddit users even pointed out that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor for Polymarket, and “That’s all you really need to know.”
Others called for prediction markets to be banned altogether, while some users pointed to recent arson cases as evidence that deliberately setting fires is already a serious threat. With the U.S. entering another severe fire season, senators and lawmakers are pressing regulators to decide whether betting on disasters has crossed a line before the practice becomes even more widespread.
